I have been on the sidelines and lacking conviction for the past two weeks.
First, I was expecting the US economy to fall harder and faster. More importantly, the Merkozy ‘promise to deliver a plan’ on Oct. 10 generated a 500 pip rally that left me scratching my
The headline risk surrounding this [...]
Entered AUD/CAD long at 1.0248 on 12 Aug added on Aug 15 at 1.0295. Exited 23 Aug (+147 pips) at 1.0395 and 30 Aug (+164 pips) at 1.0459. Result: +311 pips.
Entered with a stop at 1.01 and a target of 1.05. Greatest open loss: 80 pips Greatest open gain: [...]
We’ve wrapped up a great AUD/CAD trade by taking profits on the second part at 1.0459 for a gain of 164 pips. We sold the first part on Aug. 23 for a gain of 147 pips. The combined net gain of the trade was 311 pips. For those with interest earning accounts, this trade would [...]
Cable broke out on Tuesday. In yesterday’s post, we noted that we thought the bias was to the upside, despite the resistance around 1.6475. When that level broke, the pair rallied more than 100 pips. We talked about buying at 1.6500 and perhaps some of you did, but we did not have a buy order [...]
Entered AUD/USD at 1.0950 on 26 July. Exited July 26 at 1.1042. Result: +92 pips
Entered with no stop. Greatest open loss: 15 pips Greatest open gain: 110 pips
Sometimes a trade that is bought minutes or hours ahead of data looks whimsical but when it’s good, it’s often because it was set-up long beforehand.
Entered AUD/USA short at 1.0735 on July 4. Exited July 18 at 1.0627. Result: +108 pips
Entered with stop at 1.0800 (65 pips). Greatest open loss: 54 pips Greatest open gain: 210 pips
I entered this trade ahead of the RBA decision on July 4. I expected a dovish statement and explained why in a [...]
Entered NZDJPY at 66.68 on 30 June. Exited July 29 at 66.92. Result: -26 pips
I entered this trade at the same time as my short NZD/JPY trade. I wanted to be short the carry trade at a time I thought stocks were overbought with many risks on the horizon. The stops were wide and [...]
Entered NZDCHF short at 69.67 on 30 June. Exited July 25 at 69.68. Result: -1 pip
This was one of two trades I entered in late June with wide stops. The reasoning was: 1) expectations of rising risk aversion. 2) Hikes overpriced from RBNZ. 3) Slowing in China. 4) Run-up beginning June 26 was overdone.
Not long ago, Geithner was pronouncing the US would never lose its top rating but now the market is in the process of pricing in a downgrade. The S&P 500 fell 2% to 1305 on Wednesday and is the process of putting in its worst weekly performance in almost a year. The consensus is that the [...]
It’s getting more difficult to avoid insults and hyperbole when describing the debt ceiling imbroglio. Surely you haven’t stumbled here looking for a recap of the day’s news so I’ll spare you the exercise save for a few thoughts. 1) On Tuesday it actually appeared that debt ceiling talks were moving backwards. 2) the real [...]
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