Tag Archives: EUR/USD

Gotta give the euro credit

Someone out there sure likes these things.

The bad news has been almost relentless since August but the euro continues to hang in there. At 1.33, EUR/USD iss down almost 10 cents in that time but that’s not bad considering the existential crisis pounding away at the bulls. Moreover, EUR/USD is holding above the 2010 low of 1.1876 and the 2009 low of 1.2331. We are almost at precisely the same levels as this time last year.

I’m bearish on the pair and that isn’t going to change any time soon but I have to concede that given everything we have learned in the past year, I’m impressed the experimental currency is hanging in there. The banks and countries are bordering on insolvency and a recession is on the horizon but someone is still buying.

You have to wonder where we would be if Europe’s banks and governments had some a slightly better job of managing their books. It may take a long time to sort out and that will undoubtedly keep the downward trend going but I’m starting to think that one day the euro will soar from the ashes, in some form.

It would be easy to point at the other side of the equation at USD but the analysis doesn’t hold up. The euro is well above its credit crisis lows against GBP and CAD while holding above the early 2011 lows in AUD and NZD.

EUR/USD rallied into the end of last year and everything tells me it will do the same in 2011. The speculative market is heavily short but the next 10 days will be round after round of short covering.

I don’t fight long term trends but my best idea here is to hope for a selloff on Friday/Monday and then jump in around 1.32 with 1.3144 as a stop and a target of 1.35.

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Greek Referendum Could Be a Gamechanger

Greek Prime Minister Papandreou had a Halloween surprise for markets on Monday as he announced a referendum on the EU bailout deal. The move was completely unexpected and could throw Greece (and Europe) into chaos. The euro dropped almost 100 pips as the news hit.

The Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the troika bailout terms. It seems almost a certainty that voters will reject the deeply unpopular austerity measures, a move that would force an early election.

The referendum is slated for January and the only hope seems to be a constitutional clause that says referendums can only be held on matters of great national importance. Some are saying the current situation doesn’t apply, as hard as that is to believe.

Another hope is that Papandreou will not last long enough for a referendum, he may be defeated in a confidence vote on Nov. 2-4.

The current thinking is that Papandreou wants out or that he wants to share the responsibility of the failure of the state with the public. Bondholders who accepted a haircut only two days ago may already be having second thoughts.

Turning to the forex market, the news today highlights the endless uncertainty that will plague Europe for years to come. The euro was absolutely crushed today, falling to 1.3848 from the close on Friday at 1.4146.

The reversal back below the 55, 100 and 200-day moving averages and the close below these levels at the end of the month suggests the rally was a false breakout. Knowing that the market was positioned heavily short (via CFTC COT) it makes perfect sense. Thursday’s rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze.

I expect a half-hearted rebound in the next day or two and I will be looking to sell it.

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Trade Review: EUR/USD (-170 pips)

Entered EUR/USD short at 1.3766 on 19 Oct. Stopped out 24 Oct at 1.3936. Result: -170 pips.

Entered with a stop at 1.3936 and a target of 1.32. Greatest open loss: 170 pips Greatest open gain: 110 pips.

It’s frustrating to be right on the macro front but get the levels/timing wrong. That’s what happened with my EUR/USD short.

I entered the trade thinking there would be a European resolution on the weekend, as planned. I was right about the Guardian story being bunk, my read on bank recapitalization plans being ratcheted down was right. Economic news has also been disappointing.

I see two possible trading outcomes from this weekend’s summit. Outcome 1: Discord, disagreement or disarray. Outcome 2: an agreement that falls short of expectations or becomes impossible to implement.

That prediction rings true. (the full reasoning is here)

What concerned about a further stock market rally but I thought 1.3936 and the 55dma would cap the rallies. I was wrong.

What I didn’t anticipate was the round of repatriation that’s going on at European banks. The threat of higher capital ratios is causing them to reduce exposure abroad and bring euros back. They are also said to be holding back on dollar lending.

What I’ve learned: As soon as the story changes, get out. The moment it became apparent that European leaders were changing the timeframe, I should have got out. I also should have recognized that there are/were way too many moving parts in the euro story to accurately forecast everything. It’s not like forecasting Australian CPI or a Fed meeting. I should have been more disciplined with the entry level.

 What I’m happy about: the initial timing of the trade was solid. I was up 80 pips within a few hours. I’m also pleased with my overall assessment of the outcome. I wish I were still in this trade because the euro is going to fall. But this is the first losing trade I have had in awhile so I’m not going to compound it by chasing.

I’m looking at USD/CAD longs once again.

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EFSF Guideline Report is No Decisive Solution

The euro jumped 100 pips in a flash on the release of the EFSF guideline report. The move is nonsense and has retraced completely. EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3656 which is 120 pips below our trade entry point. Let’s take a closer look at the news.

There is nothing remarkable about the text of the document. It merely gives the EFSF power to purchase bonds in the secondary market, something that was widely expected. It also allows for credit lines to governments for the specific purpose of bank recapitalization but only as a last resort. The rules are effective immediately.

Intervention should be done “on the basis of ECB analysis and following a decision by mutual agreement from member states” and the condition for access requires “continued compliance with appropriate policy reforms” dictated by euro area finance ministers.

This draft may be all that’s accomplished this weekend. The latest reports suggest another round of meetings has been set-up for next week because of disagreements over leveraging the EFSF and the size of the Greek haircut.

“There will be no agreements,” said one senior German official. “This will now happen Wednesday at the earliest.”

The weekend will flop but the stone has been kicked down the road. There is a chance that 1.3650 breaks as headlines disappoint. I’m tempted to book profits if we see a large EUR selloff before the weekend.

Negotiations are divided on the French idea of turning the EFSF into a bank. Germany is adamantly opposed but may be growing isolated. If Sarkozy is able to force the idea forward, it would be the worst-case realistic scenario for EUR shorts.

In other news, Germany cut its growth forecast for next year down to a paltry 1%. It’s hard to imagine any other economies in the region doing any better.

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Selling EUR/USD at 1.3766

I have been on the sidelines and lacking conviction for the past two weeks.

First, I was expecting the US economy to fall harder and faster. More importantly, the Merkozy ‘promise to deliver a plan’ on Oct. 10 generated a 500 pip rally that left me scratching my

The headline risk surrounding this Sunday’s EU Summit became enormous. Yesterday’s Guardian article saying “France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone’s rescue fund to €2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a “comprehensive plan” to resolve the sovereign debt crisis.”

Aside from the numerous examples of bad grammar in this story (reached agreement?) there has been a wave of denials that has me convinced this story is bunk. The nail in the coffin was a WSJ report saying a bond insurance plan would be illegal under Europe’s no-bailout clause.

In addition, expectations are being ratcheted down for European bank recapitalization. The Greek bailout is fully expected but disappointing periphery growth is not.

It’s very difficult for me to price in what’s expected from the European Summit but betting against European policymakers has been the best trade of the year. Merkel and Finland’s PM today tried to scale back expectations but the market isn’t listening.

In addition, sentiment data remains negative. I’m a big believer in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey as a leading indicator. Last week, it was once again near a 30-year low and the lowest non-recessionary level ever.

I see two possible trading outcomes from this weekend’s summit. Outcome 1: Discord, disagreement or disarray. Outcome 2: an agreement that falls short of expectations or becomes impossible to implement.

In Outcome 2, we may see the euro rally on the news. I believe this will be short-lived and an incredible opportunity to sell.

My plan is to sell EUR/USD now with a stop at 1.3936. It’s a wide stop, at almost 180 pips but I’m targeting a drop back to 1.32 – a 560 pip reward. I’m also prepared to add to this trade in the high 1.38s.

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Looking to Buy EUR on ‘Marshall Plan’

The euro surged on news that the European bailout fund will be given the power to buy periphery debt in the secondary market. We think this is a wise move by European leaders. It will chase out shorts in the bond market and spook CDS buyers. We anticipate buying to be unannounced (unlike the Fed’s QE).

 

The riskier part of the plan, which is a draft “Marshall Plan”, calls for EU investments and growth stimulation in Greece. Banks will be recapitalized with an estimated €25 billion via loans to the Greek government. The EFSF will issue loans at around 3.5% and the duration will be extended from 7.5 years to at least 15.

 

As the news leaked out, EUR/USD jumped to 1.4315 from 1.4190. Technically, it sparked an outside bullish reversal candle. The move above 1.4309 surpasses the 100-day and the 55-day moving averages.

 

At the same time, S&P said there is a 50% chance it will downgrade the US to AA in the next three months. They warned that a short-term agreement to boost the debt ceiling without a long-term deficit-cutting plan could cause the downgrade as soon as early August. Under this scenario, they see US long-term yields rising 25-50 bps with GDP growth also cut by 25-50 bps.

 

They said a failure to reach an agreement would likely shove the US economy back into recession. They think it’s possible the Treasury could delay other payments and push default beyond Aug. 11. The latest possible date they see is Aug. 15, when $62 billion in interest is payable.

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