Someone out there sure likes these things.
The bad news has been almost relentless since August but the euro continues to hang in there. At 1.33, EUR/USD iss down almost 10 cents in that time but that’s not bad considering the existential crisis pounding away at the bulls. Moreover, EUR/USD is holding above the 2010 [...]
The news out of Greece is good. A coalition has been struck that will pass the EU-mandated reforms in order to receive the upcoming aid tranche. Papandreou will step down, a new PM will be named Monday and an election will be held after the aid is dispersed.
Barring any surprises (and they can’t be [...]
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou had a Halloween surprise for markets on Monday as he announced a referendum on the EU bailout deal. The move was completely unexpected and could throw Greece (and Europe) into chaos. The euro dropped almost 100 pips as the news hit.
The Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the [...]
I have to score the ho-hum day in markets on Friday as a win for the bulls. I expected a further pullback in risk sentiment, especially with the soft Italian bond auction. My feeling is that this means EUR/USD is on its way to 1.44 and USD/CAD down to 0.9800.
I live blogged all day [...]
The news was bang on consensus. The EFSF, bank capital and the Greek haircut were all in line with what everyone was expecting yet markets have reacted as if hit by a bolt of lightening.
To some extent, I get it. I was evidently one among many who thought European leaders wouldn’t be able to [...]
So much is going on in Europe. The number one thing I’m waiting on is the Greek bond haircut but something around 50% seems fairly certain at this point. The euro will rally once there is an agreement but it will be telling to see how much it rises.
Quick recap/analysis of today’s news:
The euro jumped 100 pips in a flash on the release of the EFSF guideline report. The move is nonsense and has retraced completely. EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3656 which is 120 pips below our trade entry point. Let’s take a closer look at the news.
The euro surged on news that the European bailout fund will be given the power to buy periphery debt in the secondary market. We think this is a wise move by European leaders. It will chase out shorts in the bond market and spook CDS buyers. We anticipate buying to be unannounced (unlike the Fed’s [...]
A Portuguese downgrade dragged the euro lower in generally quiet trading. The Swiss franc appears to have regained its footing as US stocks declined for the first time in six sessions.
The lone market-moving news was from Moody’s who slashed Portugal’s rating to Ba2, down four notches and below investment grade. The move is ominous [...]
The critical confidence vote in Greece’s parliament will take place around 5 pm ET. A failure will send the euro approx 300 pips lower.