So much is going on in Europe. The number one thing I’m waiting on is the Greek bond haircut but something around 50% seems fairly certain at this point. The euro will rally once there is an agreement but it will be telling to see how much it rises.
The euro jumped 100 pips in a flash on the release of the EFSF guideline report. The move is nonsense and has retraced completely. EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.3656 which is 120 pips below our trade entry point. Let’s take a closer look at the news.
The euro surged on news that the European bailout fund will be given the power to buy periphery debt in the secondary market. We think this is a wise move by European leaders. It will chase out shorts in the bond market and spook CDS buyers. We anticipate buying to be unannounced (unlike the Fed’s [...]