Every day we spin the wheel. Pick one of the PIIGS and pick one of the four following problems: banks, bonds, politics, ratings.
One day it’s Greece and politics, the next it’s Italy and bonds. The news is never positive; just bad or good enough to spark a short squeeze.
I’m generally a trend-following trader and after two weeks of nasty, directionless gyrations, I’m frustrated.
But there may finally be some clarity. I’m closely watching cable right now. The October rebound cleared but failed to close above the 61.8% retracement of the September fall. Now, we are testing the low end of the range and a break may be imminent.
It’s doubtful that I will trade a potential break of 1.5868. Ideally we will get a close below that level and perhaps a weekly close below 1.5820. That would give be the confidence to sell GBP/USD.