Tag Archives: BOC

Bank of Canada Could Emphasize CAD Sweet Spot

Thursday’s Bank of Canada rate decision will be rightly overshadowed by Greece and the pending US and Canadian jobs reports on Friday but once the short-term smoke clears, the central bank will have outlined the case for a long-term CAD rally.

Economists and the market see no chance of a rate hike on Thursday, leaving the overnight rate at 1.00%, where it has remained since September 2010. The market is also pricing in almost no chance that rates are any different next March than then are right now.

The decision will feature no clear guidance on rate moves in the near future but will offer a clear indication that policymakers have seen improvement. The Bank of Canada forecast 2% growth this year but with European risks minimized and US economic trajectory improving, the consensus is moving higher.

New risks have emerged from Iran and China.

The run-up in the price of oil convinced US leaders that a war with Iran would be too costly at the gas pump. As a result, crude prices are coming down to levels that remain favorable to Canadian energy exports without stifling US spending.

Chinese leaders lowered growth estimates to 7.5% for this year after nearly a decade of sandbagging the market with 8% forecasts. The BOC is unlikely to be swayed by the change because it has also been accompanied by pledges to increase imports and lower import tariffs.

With inflation pressures low, the Bank of Canada has the luxury to wait until at least mid-summer before the market will start asking hard questions about raising rates but Thursday’s decision will be an opportunity to show that hikes are visible on the distant horizon.

Aside from more upbeat commentary, the BOC may change its key language on when the economy is anticipated to return to full capacity, or when the output gap will close. The current forecast is the third quarter of 2013. If that comes down, CAD will rally.

Even if the BOC decision is less-rosy than I anticipate, I see the Greek PSI deal proceeding as expected with the potential for upside surprises in US and (especially) Canadian jobs data. This should underpin continued Canadian dollar strength.

I shared more thoughts on CAD with a Reuters reporter in a story today: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/markets-canada-dollar-bonds-idUSL2E8E7G2920120307

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Bought AUD/CAD at 1.0248

Technicals were the primary driver for a long AUD/CAD trade I entered Friday. I announced the trade on twitter via FX_Button.

 

Every Friday, shortly before the market close, I take a look at the weekly charts and see if anything jumps out. This turnaround, along with probably reversals in CHF crosses caught my attention. The reversals in CHF look convincing but I’m reluctant to fight the huge upward trend in CHF.

 

Let’s have a look at AUD/CAD weekly chart.

 

AUDCAD Weekly Aug 12
AUD/CAD Weekly One-year

The dragonfly doji reversal pattern is what jumped out. AUD also looks strong against USD but with this trade I minimize the difficult risk on/risk off trade.

 

Breaking down the fundamentals also creates a convincing trade. Despite the furor about the soft AUD jobs data and potential rates cuts this year, we are not yet convinced. The RBA took a small step toward HIKING rates at the last meeting, while warning about potential downside risks off shore. It appears as though some of those risks are coming to pass (esp. in US and Europe) but that, alone, will not be enough for the RBA to cut rates. At the same time, Chinese and Japanese data has been stronger than expected.

 

The same risks apply to Canada. What leaves CAD more vulnerable is that the market is pricing in rate hikes in Canada in the coming six months. With US growth faltering, we highly doubt those hikes are still on the table. If fact, we see the BOC as more likely to cut rates that the RBA.

 

With this trade, we will look to add around 1.03 for an initial target of 1.05. So far the early Asia-Pac trade has been good to us after a curious rally in CAD in the final 30 minutes of trading on Friday but us behind 35 pips almost immediately. Those losses have been recovered with the pair gaining 80 pips so far this week.

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The Bank of Canada Will Hike, Look to Buy CAD

The Canadian dollar jumped after May CPI hit the highest rate in eight years. The Canadian dollar trailed AUD and NZD despite the miss as Canadian bank economists held onto predictions of no hike at the July 19 meeting. Some continue to forecast no hikes this year, noting gas prices have been down since the report. As traders, we think the money lies in establishing longs ahead of the decision at an opportune time. First, the BOC is hyper-conscious of inflation expectations (like Trichet) and terrified of allowing them to creep up at all. Second, it’s an unpredictable central bank and will not foreshadow a hike with a code word like “strong vigilance.” Third, there is no meeting in August, so the BOC will have to wait until Sept. 7 to move and policymakers may feel that they will sleep better through the summer holidays with a pre-emptive move. The clincher may come with Thursday’s report on April GDP; a 0.1% contraction is expected. With a flat or positive reading you will see the stubborn Canadian bank economists begin to shift their tone.

 

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