The euro surged on news that the European bailout fund will be given the power to buy periphery debt in the secondary market. We think this is a wise move by European leaders. It will chase out shorts in the bond market and spook CDS buyers. We anticipate buying to be unannounced (unlike the Fed’s QE).
The riskier part of the plan, which is a draft “Marshall Plan”, calls for EU investments and growth stimulation in Greece. Banks will be recapitalized with an estimated €25 billion via loans to the Greek government. The EFSF will issue loans at around 3.5% and the duration will be extended from 7.5 years to at least 15.
As the news leaked out, EUR/USD jumped to 1.4315 from 1.4190. Technically, it sparked an outside bullish reversal candle. The move above 1.4309 surpasses the 100-day and the 55-day moving averages.
At the same time, S&P said there is a 50% chance it will downgrade the US to AA in the next three months. They warned that a short-term agreement to boost the debt ceiling without a long-term deficit-cutting plan could cause the downgrade as soon as early August. Under this scenario, they see US long-term yields rising 25-50 bps with GDP growth also cut by 25-50 bps.
They said a failure to reach an agreement would likely shove the US economy back into recession. They think it’s possible the Treasury could delay other payments and push default beyond Aug. 11. The latest possible date they see is Aug. 15, when $62 billion in interest is payable.
- I'm not fond of the look at the daily S&P500 chart at the end of the day. AUD looks terrible but gotta wait for a bounce to sell. 2012-10-05
- Forexlive is hiring http://t.co/9atdb6wM 2012-10-04
- I'm fairly certain the RBA will cut rates today, may even cut 50 bps. AUD vulnerable. 2012-10-01
- @jonathanspicer Take Montreal's jobs like they took our baseball team? in reply to jonathanspicer 2012-10-01
- @DougSaunders In that case, so is Texas, NY and MA within the US in reply to DougSaunders 2012-09-29
- I spoke to Reuters earlier about the Canadian dollar. $CAD http://t.co/ea2OcNsS 2012-09-28
- @aussietorres I wish I hadn't even read that story, can't imagine watching it on live tv. in reply to aussietorres 2012-09-28
- @greg_ip Because you left. You're slipping. Time to come home. in reply to greg_ip 2012-09-28
- @aussietorres That's so depressing. So sad. in reply to aussietorres 2012-09-28
- CFTC data show the market is less bearish on the euro than any time in the past year. http://t.co/QjPfiE9E 2012-09-28
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