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July Trade Review: AUD/USD (+108 pips)

Entered AUD/USA short at 1.0735 on July 4. Exited July 18 at 1.0627. Result: +108 pips

AUD/USD daily July 2011

AUD/USD daily July 2011

Entered with stop at 1.0800 (65 pips). Greatest open loss: 54 pips Greatest open gain: 210 pips

I entered this trade ahead of the RBA decision on July 4. I expected a dovish statement and explained why in a post RBA Will Remain on the Sidelines, AUD Vulnerable  “The Australian dollar is likely to fall if policymakers do not take strong incremental steps toward future rate hikes,” I wrote. “The market is still hanging on to the idea that the RBA could hike in August but we see it as a long shot.”

I wanted to be short USD on July 18 so I exited the trade. Then the RBA minutes were more hawkish than I expected. I wrote this before exiting the trade RBA Minutes Disappoint Doves “What sounded like worries about employment and growth in the statement, read more like a simple adjusting of time frames in the minutes,” I wrote, noting that a high CPI reading late in July could put rate hikes back on the table.” Later in the month I used this perspective and I made money on AUD/USD longs.

What I should have known better: Not much. I could have booked a nicer profit on July 11 but I wasn’t prepared (see my trades in NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF for more).

What I’m happy about: This is what I do best – trades based mostly on fundamentals with some technical underpinnings. I entered the trade ahead of a fundamental event and left the trade as soon as the fundamentals changed. I also didn’t get shaken out by the nearly 300 pip rally on July 11-12.

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