NZDCHF trade analysis

July Trade Review: NZD/CHF (-1 pip)

NZDCHF trade analysis FXButton
NZD/CHF daily May-Aug

 Entered NZDCHF short at 69.67 on 30 June. Exited  July 25 at 69.68. Result: -1 pip

This was one of two trades I entered in late June with wide stops. The reasoning was: 1) expectations of rising risk aversion. 2) Hikes overpriced from RBNZ. 3) Slowing in China. 4) Run-up beginning June 26 was overdone.

This trade went against me initially but I remained confident even when I was holding a loss of more than 100 pips. The 300 pip swing in my favour into July 11 was exactly what I was hoping for and it was precisely when all the reasons I entered the trade coalesced. The reason I didn’t get out of the trade with a large profit is quite sad… I wasn’t at my computer on July 11 and didn’t have a limit trade in place. At the very least, I should have lowered my stop to where I entered the trade, to lock in a profit.

What I’m happy about: The thesis for my trade was correct and I didn’t get shaken out early. I held the trade until it got back to my entry level.

What I should have known better: the T/P levels should have been ready. If not, I still had LOTS of time to get out with a 125+ pip profit from July 11-18. I stole a tie from the jaws of victory here.

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